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Andrea Unger Asia Tour 2013
About 300 people (full-house) attended Andrea Ungur's talk on automated trading at Asian Civilisations Museum auditorium on 13 Mar 2013 from 7.00 pm to 10.00 pm.
The presentation slide and photo can be downloaded below link free but a nominal contribution for maintenance of this website is appreciated.
Andrea Unger Asia Tour 2013
Art of Trading: Trading Psychology -- The RIGHT Way to Face the Markets
About 300 people (full-house) attended Andrea Ungur's talk on automated trading at Asian Civilisations Museum auditorium on 13 Mar 2013 from 7.00 pm to 10.00 pm.
The presentation slide and photo can be downloaded below link free but a nominal contribution for maintenance of this website is appreciated.
Andrea is a 47 years old Italian with a Mechanical Engineering degree. He
started trading in 1997 incurring more losses than gains. In 2004 he enrolled
Larry Williams workshop to hone his trading skills. In 2010 he became the first
trader winning World Cup Trading Championship for three straight years.
Andrea trades E-mini S&P, DAX futures, Euro Forex futures and crude oil
futures using about 20 different trading strategies, hard-coded in his automated
trading robots. He does not trade discretionally (i.e. trade manually like
us). He chooses price action for his trading decision. He does not rely on
volume or any other technical indicators. Andrea does not use fundamental
analysis, COT reports or news breakouts. He uses 5-min, 15-min, 30-min and
60-min price charts. He risks only 1.25% of his capital per trade. He applies
fixed stop-loss (not trailing stop-loss) to preserve his capital. He will close
his open positions 15 minutes before any major scheduled news announcement (e.g.
non-farm payroll). He seldom holds his positions for more than a day. His
longest trade duration was 5 days.
In last night preview, Andrea borrowed Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde
characteristics to drive home our common trading mistakes, martingale and
anti-martingale position sizing, and frequently employed trading strategies such
as trending, pair trading, scalping and mean reversion. Using his experiences
accumulated through years of painstaking research and back- and
forward-testings,
Andrea revealed the following trading insights:
Andrea revealed the following trading insights:
Good for intraday trend: DAX Futures, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and
Copper.
Good for overnight trend (hold 3 to 5 days): DAX Futures, Commodities,
EUR:USD, GBP:USD, Eur:JPY and AUD:USD.
Good for counter-trend: mini-S&P, Bonds, USD:JPY, GBP:CAD and
EUR:NZD.
During the Q&A session, Andrea shared the following three winning
strategies.
1. Short mini S&P500 at 9.30 pm and cover-short 2.5 hours later on
every third Friday of the month to capitalise on US options expiry.
2. Long EUR:USD at GMT 2am and at GMT 5pm. Short EUR:USD at GMT 8am and
at GMT 10pm. Use $1,500 for stop-loss (i.e. 150 pips) (somehow similar to our
Dragontail strategy).
3. Using 60-min bar-chart, draw two horizontal lines to represent the
highest-high and the lowest-low of the previous 10 bars. Enter long when the
current bar breaks above the upper horizontal line. Enter short when the
current bar falls below the lower horizontal line. Trade these breakouts
between GMT 9am and GMT 3pm. Trading outside this time-window will not be so
effective (somewhat similar to our London Opening Hour breakout strategy).
On 23 Mar 13, Andrea will conduct a one full day workshop at Mandarin
Orchard Hotel. The admission fee is S$480 (meetupgroup member S$420) if you book your seat during the
preview. In the workshop, Andrea will show in greater depth how he codified
his trading rules; how he developed his winning strategies using different
setups; how he used money management to produce stunning results; and how he
discovered new opportunities to get an edge over competition.
Introduction to Trading
- Different kind of approaches
- Different minds/different methods
Market Behaviour Analyses
- Overview of some major markets way of being
- From Analyses to Methods
Common Mistakes
- What people normally do and should not and don't and should
Most Common Markets Explained
- In depth insight into some of the most important markets
Trading Examples
- Development of an approach based on the above study
Entries and Exit Analyses
- Choice of entry points
- Choice of exit points
- Different opportunities, evalutation of pros and cons
Position Sizing principles
- Martingale an antimartingale
- Winning and lossing systems
Most common position sizing models
- Vince Ralph's percent f
- Ryan Jones Fixed Ratio
- K. Van Tharp's percent volatility
Improvement of Performance
- What model to use?
- A book back into the strategy
- Montecarlo Simulation
More Trading Examples
- Different approach on different markets
From Discretionary to Systematic
- The advantage of trading systems
- The route fo automation
The Way to Success
- Build your ath to become a winner
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Master class - Position Sizing
Andrea Uncle's Asia Tour looks at Money management as How Much To Put In Each Position.
Two concepts revealed:
Martingale:
To increase units after a loss and to decrease after a win
Anti Martingale:
To decrease after a loss and to increase after a win
To deal with loss positions, your local brokers tell you to do dollar cost averaging. This is a Martingale's Principle on losses.
Up sizing can be done through a number of Strategies depending on your pocket depth, risking a 无 底 洞.
Choose one which suit your circumstances. Criteria use, a Break Even Price Point
- Dollar cost averaging
- Up size by 1
- Up size by Fibonacci number
- Up size by equal positions
- Double up
| STEPS | Doller Cost Averaging | Upsize 1 | Upsize Fibonacci # | Upsize equal size | Double UP | STEPS | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.666667 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.666667 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.333333 | 2 | 2.25 | 2 | 2.25 | 4 | 2.428571 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | 2.5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3.125 | 8 | 3.266667 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.666667 | 5 | 3.833333 | 8 | 4.0625 | 16 | 4.16129 | 5 |
| 6 | 1 | 3.5 | 6 | 4.333333 | 8 | 4.7 | 16 | 5.03125 | 32 | 5.095238 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 5.606061 | 32 | 6.015625 | 64 | 6.055118 | 7 |
| 8 | 1 | 4.5 | 8 | 5.666667 | 21 | 6.537037 | 64 | 7.007813 | 8 | ||
| 9 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 6.333333 | 34 | 7.488636 | 9 | ||||
| total | 9 | 45 | 88 | 128 | 127 | total | |||||
Note “Stupid Trader, Play Safe” by Jimmy Wong expounded a 60-30-10 key factor for success (KFS). Trading Psychology takes 60% importance; Position Sizing, 30%; and Trading Setup 10%. So position sizing is only 30% of the success factor.
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The presentation slide and photo can be downloaded below link free but a nominal contribution for maintenance of this website is appreciated.
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