Saturday, March 30, 2013

Online Guru Trader - Thomas Kum Wah Yin

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About 13 attended on 30-Mar-13 1.30pm-4.30pm at 6 Battery Road #20-01.

Formula for Financial Freedom
  1. Earn more than you spend
  2. Invest the difference
  3.  Re-invest for compounding results

10 Year Investment Returns (Real Return) by asset class
Gold                         509%       (408.5%)
Singapore Equity      119.5%    (101.9%)
Singapore Property    77.5%     (46.3%)
Global Equity             65.2%      (32%)
Fixed Deposit             8.8%       (-10.2%)
Saving account           2.5%       (-12%)

OGT (online guru trader)   4% per month and 48% per year.

Capital Size minimum USD5,000 to USD20,000.

Why Invest?
  1. Beat Inflation
  2. Purchasing Power (in real returns)
  3. Income

Which to Invest?  Risky or Safe?
  1. Index
  2. Futures
  3. Commodities
  4. Forex
  5. Stocks
  6. Options
  7. CFD

Cover-call Option Strategy
Buy Stocks and sell stock call options to achieve 5 to 10% return (on stock price)

If stock price move up, the profit on stock enough to cover the call options premium
If stock price move sizeway, keep the profit on call options premium
If stock price move down options expired worthless get to keep the total premium

The only time this strategy fail is if stock price move down a lot, the options premium will not be enough to cover the stock price loss.

When to Invest?
Timing is everything.

How to Invest?
Fundament and Technical

  1.  News
  2.  Earning Growth
  3.  Annual Reports
  4.  Potential Earnings
  5.  Earnings to Price Ratio
  6. Analysis Reports

  1. Indicators
  2. Price Action
  3. Mass Crowd Psychology
  4. Value vs Price
Thomas using for charting. It is Free!
Template using MA21 and MA100 cross over with MACD histogram cross over zero line.

Success in Trading
  1. Psychology of the Mind
  2. Systematic Method
  3. Money Management (Risk Control)

Two web-site to check investment climax

Profitable trades past few months
Newfield Exploration (NFX) bought US33.83 on 22Oct12 TP at US31.40
Boeing (BA) bought US 69.60 on 7Nov12 TP at 77.98 SL 69.02
Philip Morris (PM) bought 2Jan13 at US84.50 TP 85.36 SL 64.50
Merck & Co (MRK) bought at US41.30 on 11Feb13
Exxson Mobile (XOM) bought at US88.60 on 19Feb13 SL 87.60

The only one still open trade but floating loss is Broadcom – recommended to buy now as still not move yet.

Thomas launched his OGT website in 2011 after perfecting his proprietary trading system,  after attending numerous trading courses,  after incurring years of trading losses,  and after countless hours of research, introspection and back-testing.
Thomas investment vehicles comprise spot forex, stocks, gold, CFD, futures and options.  He ignored fundamental analysis or news breakout.  He used price action together with moving average crossover (SMA 21/100) for trend direction and MACD Histogram (26,12,9) for timing. 

Upon further probing, Thomas disclosed that he used an array of eight checklists for his setup, entry and stop-loss.  However, he was only willing to share the following two parameters at this juncture:

For setup:  Get ready to Long when SMA(21) crosses above SMA(100).  Get ready to Short when SMA(100) crosses below SMA(21) for trend direction.
For entry:  Long when MACD Histogram (26,12,9) bars start to rise toward 0 level.  Short when MACD Histogram bars start to fall toward the zero level.

Thomas ignored MACD line and its signal line completely.   Thomas claimed that this stringent system would trigger five trading alerts per month and have a success rate of 80%.   Besides having this field-tested trading Methodology, Thomas stressed that a disciplined Mindset and sound Money Management (i.e. 3Ms) were equally important to achieve a consistent and profitable return.   His goal was to achieve a 4% ROI per month (or 48% per annum).   He then walked us through his website  and showed us his 2012 and 2013 trading prowess as follows:
Jan to Dec  2012 records           Jan to Mar 2013 records (3 months)
Total trades done.....112           Total trades done......24
Total Wins..................60           Total Wins.................17
Total Losses...............52           Total Losses................7
Win Amount.......$26,647          Amount win ........$8,801
Lost Amount.......$20,501          Lost Amount........$4,288
Net Profit............$ 6,146           Net Profit............$4,513
% Gain......................61%           % Gain....................45% (based on $10,000 start-up capital)
We could try his one-month trade-alert notification service free-of-charge by agreeing to do a 20-sec video testimony and by allowing OGT to use it for advertising purpose.  His trade-alert notification would include stock name,  contract size,  order type,  buy/sell entry level,  take-profit/stop-loss level,  amount gained if call-alert was accurate,  potential amount lost if call-alert was incorrect,  and maximum holding period between 1 day and 60 days.  We noted that his recent calls were focused mostly on US stocks.  There was only one call-alert for a Singapore stock (Liongold).
Off-the-cuff, Thomas hinted that STI would close at around 3500 level by end-2013 based on his URA residential property price and STI correlation analysis (90% correl).   He also hinted that gold would continue to be bullish over the next 10 years (after the current retracement) owing to rampant money printing and rising inflation.  To drive the point home, he flashed the ticking world's debt clock website.
Thomas said that he had just completed an OGT workshop from 2 to 5 March 2013 (11 attended from the picture).   
Next intake would be on 4 to 7 May 2013 (9.00 am to 5.00 pm).  The course fee was haggled down from $11,173 to $2,999 (payable by depositing $500 booking fee plus $208.25 * 12 monthly instalments).   In addition, Thomas would throw in the following freebies:
1.  12-month trading alerts subscription service worth $2,388;
2.  12-month OGT live trading sessions worth $2,388;
3.  two 1-hour trading clinic sessions with Thomas (1-to-1 coaching) worth $1,398;
4.  re-sit the 4-day OGT workshop at a nominal fee of $500 to cover overhead cost;
5.  50% discount for an accompanying spouse or family member to attend the $2,999 workshop;
6.  life-time phone and email support;  and
7.  200% money back guarantee if a graduate lost money after following his OGT trading alerts faithfully for one year.

Monday, March 18, 2013

OTA Jeff Manson Live Trading Demo Session

About 50 persons attended Jef f Manson's Market Timing Workshop preview at MND Complex Annex B Auditorium on 18 Mar 2013 from 7pm to 10pm.

Jeff specialises in Dow Jones Futures using simple ruled based strategies and strict money management.  In the workshop, Jeff will teach how us to spot 6 winning chart patterns.  Owing to time constraint, he could only show us 2 patterns, namely

1.  Drop Base Rally setup for long trade and
2.  Rally Base Drop setup for short trade.

Jeff entered the trade upon re-test off the demand/supply zone.  His 1st take-profit level was at the mid-point of the base-to-rally perpendicular (i.e. 50% fibo retracement).   His 2nd and 3rd take-profit levels were pegged at other fibo levels, which could not discern clearly.  Jeff set his stop-loss level at the opposite end of the demand/supply zone.  Jeff's demand and supply zones look like a price-chart support and resistance levels.

Jeff reiterated us of the importance of having an established trade plan.  He showed us a spread-sheet where he grew a US$5,000 initial cash deposit to US$31,400 account balance one year later.  He achieved it by targeting a 5-point profit per trade on Dow futures (US$5 per point), and by trading 4 contracts a day, 20 days a month.  He told us that after 28 trading days, one would be able to comfortably withdraw US$300 a day for living expenses.

To drive home the profit expectancy of his trade plan, Jeff did two live trades in front of the audience.   In both instances, he was stopped out.   He reminded the audience that after two successive trade losses, a trader must stop trading and review what actually went wrong with his plan.

To save further embarrassment,  Novy, GM of OTA quickly interrupted Jeff's session by announcing a $488 course fee for Jeff's 3-day workshop on 25-27 May 2013.  To sweeten the deal, every paying attendee will be allowed to bring a friend to attend same course free-of-charge.

Jeff uses Dow cash market performance to predict Dow futures market direction.  Jeff uses trade station's 144-tick and 610-tick ergodic volume charts instead of normal candlestick 5-min and 60-min charts in tonight’s demonstration.  Perhaps, Jeff fared badly tonight because he adopted the wrong type of price chart and ignored the traditional indicators, such as moving average, MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, ADX?

USDJPY  377 tic
USDCAD 55 tic
EURUSD 144 tic trading  610 tic for trend identifying
YM Dow  233 tic
NLQM Nasdaq 610 tic identify trend

10pm has 80% reversal success rate

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Andrea Unger Masterclass March-2013

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Andrea Unger Asia Tour 2013

Art of Trading: Trading Psychology -- The RIGHT Way to Face the Markets

About 300 people (full-house) attended Andrea Ungur's talk on automated trading at Asian Civilisations Museum auditorium on 13 Mar 2013 from 7.00 pm to 10.00 pm.

The presentation slide and photo can be downloaded below link free but a nominal contribution for maintenance of this website  is appreciated.

Andrea is a 47 years old Italian with a Mechanical Engineering degree.  He started trading in 1997 incurring more losses than gains.  In 2004 he enrolled Larry Williams workshop to hone his trading skills.  In 2010 he became the first trader winning World Cup Trading Championship for three straight years. 
Andrea trades E-mini S&P, DAX futures, Euro Forex futures and crude oil futures using about 20 different trading strategies, hard-coded in his automated trading robots.  He does not trade discretionally (i.e. trade manually like us).   He chooses price action for his trading decision.  He does not rely on volume or any other technical indicators.   Andrea does not use fundamental analysis, COT reports or news breakouts.   He uses 5-min, 15-min, 30-min and 60-min price charts.  He risks only 1.25% of his capital per trade.  He applies fixed stop-loss (not trailing stop-loss) to preserve his capital.  He will close his open positions 15 minutes before any major scheduled news announcement (e.g. non-farm payroll).  He seldom holds his positions for more than a day.  His longest trade duration was 5 days. 
In last night preview, Andrea borrowed Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde characteristics to drive home our common trading mistakes, martingale and anti-martingale position sizing, and frequently employed trading strategies such as trending, pair trading, scalping and mean reversion.  Using his experiences accumulated through years of painstaking research and back- and forward-testings,

Andrea revealed the following trading insights:
Good for intraday trend:   DAX Futures, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Copper.
Good for overnight trend (hold 3 to 5 days):  DAX Futures, Commodities, EUR:USD, GBP:USD, Eur:JPY and AUD:USD.

Good for counter-trend:  mini-S&P,  Bonds, USD:JPY, GBP:CAD and EUR:NZD.

During the Q&A session, Andrea shared the following three winning strategies.
1.  Short mini S&P500 at 9.30 pm and cover-short 2.5 hours later on every third Friday of the month to capitalise on US options expiry.  
2.  Long EUR:USD at GMT 2am and at GMT 5pm.  Short EUR:USD at GMT 8am and at GMT 10pm.  Use $1,500 for stop-loss (i.e. 150 pips)  (somehow similar to our Dragontail strategy).
3.  Using 60-min bar-chart, draw two horizontal lines to represent the highest-high and the lowest-low of the previous 10 bars.  Enter long when the current bar breaks above the upper horizontal line.  Enter short when the current bar falls below the lower horizontal line.  Trade these breakouts between GMT 9am and GMT 3pm.  Trading outside this time-window will not be so effective (somewhat similar to our London Opening Hour breakout strategy).
On 23 Mar 13, Andrea will conduct a one full day workshop at Mandarin Orchard Hotel.  The admission fee is S$480 (meetupgroup member S$420) if you book your seat during the preview.   In the workshop, Andrea will show in greater depth how he codified his trading rules;  how he developed his winning strategies using different setups;  how he used money management to produce stunning results;  and how he discovered new opportunities to get an edge over competition.  
One full day course S$480 23Mar13 Saturday 9am - 5pm Mandarin Orchard Hotel

Introduction to Trading
- Different kind of approaches
- Different minds/different methods

Market Behaviour Analyses
- Overview of some major markets way of being
- From Analyses to Methods

Common Mistakes
- What people normally do and should not and don't and should

Most Common Markets Explained
- In depth insight into some of the most important markets

Trading Examples
- Development of an approach based on the above study

Entries and Exit Analyses
- Choice of entry points
- Choice of exit points
- Different opportunities, evalutation of pros and cons

Position Sizing principles
- Martingale an antimartingale
- Winning and lossing systems

Most common position sizing models
- Vince Ralph's percent f
- Ryan Jones Fixed Ratio
- K. Van Tharp's percent volatility

Improvement of Performance
- What model to use?
- A book back into the strategy
- Montecarlo Simulation

More Trading Examples
- Different approach on different markets

From Discretionary to Systematic
- The advantage of trading systems
- The route fo automation

The Way to Success
- Build your ath to become a winner

Master class - Position Sizing

Andrea Uncle's Asia Tour looks at Money management as How Much To Put In Each Position.
Two concepts revealed:
To increase units after a loss and to decrease after a win
Anti Martingale:
To decrease after a loss and to increase after a win

To deal with loss positions, your local brokers tell you to do dollar cost averaging. This is a Martingale's Principle on losses.
Up sizing can be done through a number of Strategies depending on your pocket depth, risking a 无 底 洞.
Choose one which suit your circumstances. Criteria use, a Break Even Price Point
  • Dollar cost averaging
  • Up size by 1
  • Up size by Fibonacci number
  • Up size by equal positions
  • Double up 

STEPSDoller Cost AveragingUpsize      1Upsize    Fibonacci #Upsize      equal sizeDouble      UPSTEPS

Note “Stupid Trader, Play Safe” by Jimmy Wong expounded a 60-30-10 key factor for success (KFS).  Trading Psychology takes 60% importance;  Position Sizing, 30%;  and Trading Setup 10%.  So position sizing is only 30% of the success factor.


The presentation slide and photo can be downloaded below link free but a nominal contribution for maintenance of this website  is appreciated.

Saturday, March 9, 2013

Larry Williams - Wealth Mentors

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Larry Williams seminar at Sheraton Hotel on 9-Mar-13 Sat 10am-12pm by Wealth Mentors.

Five things to note:
1. The Government is Right
2. We can get a glimpse of the Future - on occasion
3. Fundamentals matter
4. The key is Money Management
5. Trend is market gravity

A glimpse of the future:
1.  Seasonal
2.  Cycles
3.  Pattern and price
4. Tradable

Master cycle every 4 to 4.5 year pattern

Intraday "Seasonal" pattern

Stock Market in Singapore pattern - Monday down, Tuesday up

Larry bought Gold on Friday night during mid-session based on his Friday Gold pattern and expect Gold to pick up next few weeks - months.

Cycle Studies
Cycle are about time, more than magnitude

Tradional Business
- 13 week cycle
- 90 day commercial paper
- Quaterly release of earning

Gold Forecast - long gold during March usually bottom

Fundamentals - why trade commodities over stocks
- Supply and Demand
- Premium / Contango
- Commercial buysing (net long and net short via weekly report)
- Advisory Sentiment
- Valuation
- Money Supply / Interest Rates

Stock Markets Insider trading:
-  Insider buying is more significant than insider selling as buyer got insider information stock is moving up but selling could due to personal and individual financial environment requirement

Turtle System - a trend following break out system. Buy or sell at break of last 20 or 55 days.
- Does not work as need a lot of capital as incur loss most of the time when market is sideway and only recover when capture few big trend break out.
One such example is Quants fund fell 3.4% last year after a 7.9% decline in 2011.

One rule for Gold
-  Iif tomorrow is some x day (suspect referring to Friday), then another 40 day average of close is > 2 days average and 3rd week of the month.
207 trades 93% wins
Average trade $600
Maximum drawdown $5,000
44 wins in a row and 2 losses

Money Management
- Different from every individual
- 2% to 3% max drawdown per trade

- All profits are a function of time. No time, no profit.

Larry Williams Trading Mastery Bootcamp
23-24Mar13 Sat-Sun 9am-5pm at Furama City Center Chinatown
2 - days course:
-  What really moves the market
-  3M Formula
-  Money Management
-  Mindset
-  Methods:
a. How to identify trend.
b. Short term trading system works on all time frame
c. Swing trades and long term trade

For first 25 sign up today only with following 4 bonus free:
1.  One month Larry TV weekly trade alert
2.  Simple mechanical method for gold
3.  Larry buy/sell indicators
4.  When and why the market moves

The course is value at $12,000 for today offering at $3,997.

The course is promoted by Aaron CEO of Wealth Mentor.