Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Andrea Unger Masterclass March-2013

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Andrea Unger Asia Tour 2013

Art of Trading: Trading Psychology -- The RIGHT Way to Face the Markets

About 300 people (full-house) attended Andrea Ungur's talk on automated trading at Asian Civilisations Museum auditorium on 13 Mar 2013 from 7.00 pm to 10.00 pm.

The presentation slide and photo can be downloaded below link free but a nominal contribution for maintenance of this website  is appreciated.


Andrea is a 47 years old Italian with a Mechanical Engineering degree.  He started trading in 1997 incurring more losses than gains.  In 2004 he enrolled Larry Williams workshop to hone his trading skills.  In 2010 he became the first trader winning World Cup Trading Championship for three straight years. 
Andrea trades E-mini S&P, DAX futures, Euro Forex futures and crude oil futures using about 20 different trading strategies, hard-coded in his automated trading robots.  He does not trade discretionally (i.e. trade manually like us).   He chooses price action for his trading decision.  He does not rely on volume or any other technical indicators.   Andrea does not use fundamental analysis, COT reports or news breakouts.   He uses 5-min, 15-min, 30-min and 60-min price charts.  He risks only 1.25% of his capital per trade.  He applies fixed stop-loss (not trailing stop-loss) to preserve his capital.  He will close his open positions 15 minutes before any major scheduled news announcement (e.g. non-farm payroll).  He seldom holds his positions for more than a day.  His longest trade duration was 5 days. 
In last night preview, Andrea borrowed Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde characteristics to drive home our common trading mistakes, martingale and anti-martingale position sizing, and frequently employed trading strategies such as trending, pair trading, scalping and mean reversion.  Using his experiences accumulated through years of painstaking research and back- and forward-testings,

Andrea revealed the following trading insights:
Good for intraday trend:   DAX Futures, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Copper.
Good for overnight trend (hold 3 to 5 days):  DAX Futures, Commodities, EUR:USD, GBP:USD, Eur:JPY and AUD:USD.

Good for counter-trend:  mini-S&P,  Bonds, USD:JPY, GBP:CAD and EUR:NZD.

During the Q&A session, Andrea shared the following three winning strategies.
1.  Short mini S&P500 at 9.30 pm and cover-short 2.5 hours later on every third Friday of the month to capitalise on US options expiry.  
2.  Long EUR:USD at GMT 2am and at GMT 5pm.  Short EUR:USD at GMT 8am and at GMT 10pm.  Use $1,500 for stop-loss (i.e. 150 pips)  (somehow similar to our Dragontail strategy).
3.  Using 60-min bar-chart, draw two horizontal lines to represent the highest-high and the lowest-low of the previous 10 bars.  Enter long when the current bar breaks above the upper horizontal line.  Enter short when the current bar falls below the lower horizontal line.  Trade these breakouts between GMT 9am and GMT 3pm.  Trading outside this time-window will not be so effective (somewhat similar to our London Opening Hour breakout strategy).
On 23 Mar 13, Andrea will conduct a one full day workshop at Mandarin Orchard Hotel.  The admission fee is S$480 (meetupgroup member S$420) if you book your seat during the preview.   In the workshop, Andrea will show in greater depth how he codified his trading rules;  how he developed his winning strategies using different setups;  how he used money management to produce stunning results;  and how he discovered new opportunities to get an edge over competition.  
One full day course S$480 23Mar13 Saturday 9am - 5pm Mandarin Orchard Hotel

Introduction to Trading
- Different kind of approaches
- Different minds/different methods

Market Behaviour Analyses
- Overview of some major markets way of being
- From Analyses to Methods

Common Mistakes
- What people normally do and should not and don't and should

Most Common Markets Explained
- In depth insight into some of the most important markets

Trading Examples
- Development of an approach based on the above study

Entries and Exit Analyses
- Choice of entry points
- Choice of exit points
- Different opportunities, evalutation of pros and cons

Position Sizing principles
- Martingale an antimartingale
- Winning and lossing systems

Most common position sizing models
- Vince Ralph's percent f
- Ryan Jones Fixed Ratio
- K. Van Tharp's percent volatility

Improvement of Performance
- What model to use?
- A book back into the strategy
- Montecarlo Simulation

More Trading Examples
- Different approach on different markets

From Discretionary to Systematic
- The advantage of trading systems
- The route fo automation

The Way to Success
- Build your ath to become a winner

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Master class - Position Sizing


Andrea Uncle's Asia Tour looks at Money management as How Much To Put In Each Position.
Two concepts revealed:
Martingale:
To increase units after a loss and to decrease after a win
Anti Martingale:
To decrease after a loss and to increase after a win

To deal with loss positions, your local brokers tell you to do dollar cost averaging. This is a Martingale's Principle on losses.
Up sizing can be done through a number of Strategies depending on your pocket depth, risking a 无 底 洞.
Choose one which suit your circumstances. Criteria use, a Break Even Price Point
  • Dollar cost averaging
  • Up size by 1
  • Up size by Fibonacci number
  • Up size by equal positions
  • Double up 

STEPSDoller Cost AveragingUpsize      1Upsize    Fibonacci #Upsize      equal sizeDouble      UPSTEPS
111111111111
211.521.66666711.511.521.6666672
31232.33333322.2522.2542.4285713
412.5433343.12583.2666674
51353.66666753.83333384.0625164.161295
613.564.33333384.7165.03125325.0952386
71475135.606061326.015625646.0551187
814.585.666667216.537037647.0078138
91596.333333347.4886369
total94588128127total

Note “Stupid Trader, Play Safe” by Jimmy Wong expounded a 60-30-10 key factor for success (KFS).  Trading Psychology takes 60% importance;  Position Sizing, 30%;  and Trading Setup 10%.  So position sizing is only 30% of the success factor.

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The presentation slide and photo can be downloaded below link free but a nominal contribution for maintenance of this website  is appreciated.



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