Sunday, January 12, 2014

** Ein55 Dr Tee - 12Jan2014

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12Jan2014  2pm-530pm @ Park Mall  #13-13

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Newssletter 27Jan2014

Dear Reader,
Hu Li Yang (HLY, the famous Asian Investing Master, who probably holds the record of conducting the most number of investing talks in 1 year) and my views have been aligned well in the past few years (even during Euro debt crisis 2-3 years ago, we were one of the few bullish viewers at that time) until 6 months ago, when I attended his talk in Aug 2013 investing conference, he announced the end of US bull market due to QE3 tapering and coming interest rate hike while US stock market is at its historical high level.  Our mega market views started to diverge (he became bearish while I remain bullish) and I have explained in my market outlook talks over the past 6 months, supporting by facts why QE3 tapering and interest rate hike are blessing in disguise for a bullish market cycle.  HLY has his good reasons too, mostly in a logical way (conventional thinking), while I am using reversed psychology of investors with historical data as support.  For more details, you may refer to my recent 10-pg article on global market outlook ( or coming for the next market outlook 2014 workshop (registering through weblink below).
From the recent HLY talk in Jan 2014 (Singapore), he still holds the view that US market is bearish.  At the end of talk, during the last Q&A, someone asked his definition of bear market, whether it is 20% mid term correction or more than 30% longer term bear market.  HLY did not answer this question directly, saying that he has to observe one step at a time, only he can conclude whether US market is bearish or not.  HLY is very sure there will be a global financial crisis one day but he is unsure whether the coming one will be a correction or real major crisis.
This is a dilemma, HLY is bearish on mega trend of US stock market but at the same time, he seems to accept that there is a last rally, therefore he suggests to use shorter term trading technique.  While holding bearish view of US, he is bullish of China stock market as he feels the fund will flow from US to China stock market.  In my opinion, based on the historical data, whenever there is a global financial crisis, all the major stock markets in the world will fall together, it is unlikely for world #1 and #2 economy to have 2 distinct mega trends but it is possible to have different mid-term trends, eg, China SSEC has been bearish while US has been bullish since 2009 till now.
Based on the sharing above, I have a feeling that HLY and my views are actually not entirely diverged.  The main difference is due to the definition of investing period and size of bear (mini bear or big bear).  Although HLY did not define clearly his size of bear market, based on my understanding of his investing style, he is an excellent mid-term trader or investor, capturing the mid-term trend of 3-12 months very well in the past.  For me, I am a mega-cycle investor, focusing more on market trend of 1-5 years.  So, I am bullish of global stock market, at least until 2017 (supported by macroeconomy data), but the actual duration depends on "market fever", if the global market (stocks, property, economy, etc) arrives at 75% - 100% optimism earlier, then the bull market may end earlier (eg. after the last Asian Financial crisis, the S.E.A. market climbs up from 0% to 100% optimism in 1+ year, total bull duration is only 1+ year, not necessarily has to be many years)  At the same time, I believe US stock market (which is over 60% optimism) requires a major correction (without killing the bull), so that it can continue its marathon bull run.  If HLY "bear market" definition is only a mid-term correction (<20 comment-20--="">
At least there is one point in common between HLY and myself:  there is still a last rally in the stock market, only difference is the duration. HLY feels the bull market will end by end of 2014 (earlier talk was end of 2013), while I feel it will be until at least 2017 (but could be faster if 100% market optimism is reached earlier).  Time will tell.
HLY has become "Dr Doom" while one of the 2 famous Dr Doom (Faber/Roubini), Dr Roubini has become bullish of stock market in 2014.  For me, I am not Dr Boom nor Dr Doom all the time, will change my position based on % market optimism in a mega market cycle: Dr Doom when it is over >75% optimism, Dr Boom when it is < 25% optimism, a sleeping investor when the market is 25% - 75% optimism.
Dr Tee




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